Civitas Flash Poll: Democrat Hudson Holds Early Lead in Senate District 10
Raleigh, N.C. – Democratic nominee Dewey Hudson is leading the state Senate District 10 race against Republican opponent Brent Jackson according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.
According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, 44 percent of voters said that if the election for state Senator were held today they would vote for Hudson. Thirty-six percent said they would vote for Jackson, and 19 percent said they were undecided.
However, among voters who say they are definitely voting in November, the numbers are virtually tied between the Hudson and Jackson camps for retiring Sen. Charles Albertson’s seat. Forty-three percent of those most likely to vote said they would vote for Hudson. Forty-two percent said they would vote for Jackson and 15 percent said they were undecided.
“This is a leaning-Democratic district, but is shaping up to be a competitive race due to the retirement of Sen. Albertson and the potentially strong year Republicans could have across North Carolina,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “Both candidates have a similar net favorable rating among voters having benefited from a competitive primary to increase their name identification”
Senate District 10 is rated as a D+3 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts. For more on the NCPI, click here. 2008 Republican Presidential candidate John McCain carried the district by a 53-47 margin over Barack Obama.
The two candidates’ favorable ratings are close as well – subtracting a candidate’s unfavorable rating from his favorable rating produces a net favorable number. Hudson is seen favorably by 27 percent of the district’s voters while only 16 percent have an unfavorable opinion, giving him a net favorability rating of +11.
Jackson has a net favorability +10 after having been seen favorably by 20 percent of voters and unfavorably by 10 percent of voters.
“This district shows how critical voter turnout can be in non-Presidential years,” added Hayes. “If Democratic voter enthusiasm remains low, this is a district Republicans could pick up.”
For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.
The survey of 350 registered voters was taken May 16-18 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method. It carries a margin of error of 4.9%.
